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卡萨布兰卡

    发布时间:2026-08-26  

    天梯

    Will US efforts to deescalate the Israel-Hamas conflict be effective? Experts weigh in_我的网站

    胡雪岩

    A |     Following Hamas' attack on Israel, the United States has sent a clear message of deterrence to prevent the conflict from spreading.To "anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation," President Joe Biden said during an address on Tuesday, "I have one word: Don't."The rhetoric has since been repeated by others in the administration, with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan telling reporters that they believe militia groups across the region "pose an urgent threat" and could "choose to try to exploit" the situation.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next."We have been sending clear warnings that doing so will result in a firm response and consequences from the United States," Sullivan said Tuesday.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday there's a "long list of actors in the region that are hostile to Israel," including Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group.The administration has also offered its full support to Israel, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin telling reporters in Brussels on Thursday that the U.S. is not placing conditions on the military aid it's providing to Israel. The U.S. additionally moved a carrier strike group into the eastern Mediterranean as part of its deterrence measures."We're sending a loud and clear message: The United States is ready to take action should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to escalate or widen this war," Kirby said Wednesday.How impactful those gestures will be on the raging war remains uncertain. The U.S. has limited leverage in the region, though does need to be careful to not further escalate the conflict, foreign policy experts said. The Biden administration is also likely keen to not get heavily involved, experts said."If Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or some other militant group from a neighboring country decides to get involved and attack Israel at this time, I don't think the United States is going to do anything more than it's currently doing -- which is offering Israel whatever it needs to defend itself," Ralph Carter, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.Biden has historically been "cautious" in sending U.S. troops into battle, Carter said. "His experience in Washington over 40 years or more suggests that once you start something like that, you have no idea where it's going to end."Kirby said Thursday that there are no active plans or intentions to send U.S. troops to join a potential ground war in Israel and Gaza. The U.S. has deployed its largest carrier group, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region as an act of deterrence, officials said."The United States has moved military assets in the region, but I really do find it doubtful that the Biden administration really wants to get heavily involved militarily," Russell Lucas, a professor of international relations and global studies at Michigan State University, told ABC News.Israel's powerful military is also capable of defending itself against Hamas and other militant groups, experts noted, which may limit what it needs from the U.S. and act as another deterrent."The requirements on the U.S. defense industry I think are maybe not as heavy as they might be if we were talking about a weaker ally," Adria Lawrence, the Aronson Associate Professor of International Studies and Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, said during a public briefing on the conflict.In recent days there have been some limited military engagements on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, though Hezbollah may be deterred from getting drawn into a larger conflict with Israel, experts said."They will pay dearly for entering the conflict," Lucas said. "I think most actors [in the region] know that at the end of the day, the most military-capable actor is Israel, so there is a deterrence factor."Given Israel's known military prowess, the Biden administration's rhetoric may be stronger than necessary, Lucas said."I think it's more the Biden administration is aiming especially at the domestic audience -- trying to reassert that kind of bully pulpit of the commander-in-chief role, especially in the face of perhaps critiques from the Republican Party that Biden isn't strong enough," he said.At the same time, the U.S. does need to be careful about making any threats, experts said."Words matter and if President Biden's making a commitment and making kind of an implicit threat, he needs to remember the risks that are inherent in making a red line," Lucas said. "President Obama's red line in Syria -- do not use chemical weapons -- that was then not followed up was viewed as one of Obama's biggest foreign policy failures."Sarah Parkinson, the Aronson Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Studies at JHU, said during the university's briefing that these comments by U.S. officials "will likely embolden extremists on both sides" and prolong the conflict.Following Biden's remarks, Hezbollah said they will not back down and are "ready for confrontation," while the top leader of the Islamist armed organization Houthis in Yemen said that if the U.S. intervenes militarily in Gaza, they will send munitions and fighters to support Hamas.In efforts to deescalate the conflict, the U.S. could help mobilize other countries in the region, according to James Steinberg, the dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at JHU and former Deputy Secretary of State during the Obama administration."It's not that the United States itself is going to broker a resolution of this, but it can engage others, all of whom have a stake in not seeing the situation escalate," Steinberg said during the university's briefing, noting the discussions that have been taking place between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others.Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Israel that they are working with their partners in the region to ensure "that there will not be a second front or a third front."Steinberg said a wider war "can't be ruled out," and the effectiveness of the U.S.' response to deescalate is "uncertain" -- likening it to its support of Israel in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War."Here as then, the United States has limited impact and limited leverage," he said. "Perhaps even less so today than it did in 1973."。      澳门8月16日电 题:新起点、新机遇、新突破——澳门各界期盼“三五”规划开创高质量发展新局面  记者宋晨、齐菲、郭雨祺  作为引领澳门未来五年经济社会发展的纲领性文件,《澳门特别行政区经济和社会发展第三个五年规划(2026—2030年)》(以下简称“三五”规划)发布在即,为澳门立足新起点、抢抓新机遇、实现新突破指明清晰路径。

    B |   澳门特区行政长官岑浩辉日前发表署名文章,解读“三五”规划核心要义与重点任务,围绕经济适度多元、澳琴一体化发展、都市更新、融入和服务国家发展大局四个关键方向,描绘“法治澳门、活力澳门、文化澳门、幸福澳门”美好愿景,引发澳门社会各界畅谈对“三五”规划的期待与展望。  澳门经济学会理事长柳智毅表示,“三五”期间,扎实推动经济适度多元发展是特区政府施政的重要任务,社会各界均期待特区政府以创新思维、空前力度、更实举措,在更好发挥政府引导基金引领作用、加大资金投入和招商引资力度、培育新兴经济增长点、落实重点工程项目等方面取得新突破。  作为四大重点工程项目之一的澳琴国际教育(大学)城8月初取得阶段性成果。

    C | 澳门大学校长宋永华介绍,目前澳琴国际教育(大学)城第一期——澳门大学办学点(德智广场和宇信大厦)运作顺利,在读学生近1000人,为整体项目建设奠定坚实基础。他表示,未来五年,澳门大学将依托跨境“一校两区”格局,深度融入和服务国家发展大局,助力澳琴一体化建设提质增效。

    D | 工学院研究生新生赵思明对未来的研学生活充满憧憬,她希望有机会在本校区和办学点之间跨域学习交流,开阔学术与文化视野。  “三五”规划着重凸显科技创新的带动引领作用,令澳门科技界深受鼓舞。

    E | 澳门科学技术协进会会长崔世平期待,“三五”期间,澳门依托“一国两制”制度优势与深厚中西文化底蕴,推动“科技+文化”深度融合,培育创新演艺、沉浸式活动、智能交互体验等融合新业态,为粤港澳大湾区建设世界级城市群再添软实力与独特魅力。  依托背靠祖国、联通世界的区位优势,“三五”规划明确澳门将强化内联外通发展格局。

    F | 对此,澳门银行业倍感振奋。澳门银行公会主席范耀胜表示,“三五”期间,澳门银行业对内将深化澳琴一体化发展,助力粤港澳大湾区高质量建设,服务实体经济发展;对外将发挥“精准联系人”作用,做优中葡金融服务平台,服务“走出去”“引进来”,助力人民币国际使用,为澳门打造高水平对外开放桥头堡贡献金融力量。  民生提质与城市更新是建设“幸福澳门”的重要任务,也是本次规划聚焦基层、回应民需的关键举措。

    G | 粤澳工商联会会长施家伦表示,“三五”规划将多元产业发展与中小企及社区经济紧密结合,令人鼓舞。展望未来五年,他期待特区政府持续深化多元产业与社区经济的协同联动,扶持中小企拓宽营商空间,善用横琴产业与就业渠道,更期盼经济发展成果切实转化为民生福祉,优化就业结构、完善社保医疗体系,共建宜居宜业澳门。  澳门市民从规划中也深切感受到城市发展希望,不少市民表示,期待旧区改造提速升级、公共服务与城市配套持续完善。澳门市民李女士说,希望未来五年特区政府更加关注老年人、失业人士等弱势群体实际困难,同时畅通社会意见表达渠道,促进社会理解与共识。  在横琴就业生活的澳门青年黄滋才对澳琴融合与青年发展等内容充满期待。

    H | 他希望进一步完善澳琴在通关、就业、创业、社保等方面的制度衔接,真正构建便利宜居的“一体化生活圈”。

    I | 同时,他希望推出更多针对澳门青年的实习、就业和创业扶持措施。黄滋才说,澳门青年愿主动融入国家发展大局,结合澳门制度优势与横琴空间优势,“在大湾区追梦、圆梦”。

    J |   站在全新发展起点,澳门社会对“三五”规划落地实施充满信心。各界人士一致认为,未来五年,澳门将在融入和服务国家发展大局中激活全新发展动能,持续书写“一国两制”成功实践新篇章。

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